Change is the property of the universe.
In fact, I can think of hardly anything that resists it.
But some informational patterns persist for longer than others.
Your body remains recognisably yours, even though it’s atoms are replaced over the years.
The language remains the same even thorugh its speakers overturn,
And human motives remain recognisably human, even though revolution after revolution, our society gets transformed.

This makes me ponder, what will stay the same in the future as the world takes a turn gain?

Predicting the future is of great value, which is why there is no shortage of poor speculation. But predictions usually try to forecast how X – the variable – will change. And few things are as hard to predict than things that are in flux.
So instead, it might be a more rational framework to think of the constants.
What things won’t change?

I. The shape of change
The most obvious place to start is by charting out a few categories of things that change.
Here are a few categories from least to most mutable:

  1. Physical laws – the laws of our universe. Invariant, so far as anyone can tell
  2. Physical state – the evolved arrangement of matter, like solar-systems, planets, continents. Tend to change on long geological timescales
  3. Biology – the evolved structures of organisms. Change over generations.
  4. Psychology – the learned behaviour and cognition of organisms; habits, norms, beliefs. Change over decades.
  5. Technology – the built extensions of organisms. Institutions, law, phones, etc. Change over days to years.

In the next 100 years, as the Intelligence Revolution will all it’s mighty AI chat-bots re-shapes the society once again, it feels intuitive to expect the categories at the top of the least to change least, and the once at the bottom most.
Change in the universe is constrained by physical law. It shapes what change is more likely to happen. And change thus tends down this path of least resistance (most likelihood) within those constraints the natrual law establishes. Continents shift wherever it’s easiest to shift. Proteins fold however it’s easiest to fold. Energy flows wherever it’s easiest to flow.

The stronger the constraints are against a thing changing, the less likely it is to change.
And so, to predict the future, it makes sense to first paint a picture of what are it’s constraints.

As an example, lets consider how our society would NOT change in the next 100 years.
Humans evolved the craving for power, sex and connection that act like gravity wells. So, the techologies we build first and foremoset we build in persuit of those cravings. We build nuclear bombs in persuit of power, poronography in pursuit of sex, and telephones in pursuit of connection.
As long as our evolution doesn’t change in the next 100 years – which it likely wont – the future holds much of the same. Phones and nukes might go, but desire for connection and power probably not. Under such framing space-weapons, sex robots and brain-to-brain interfaces become the default expected future; even if the the shape may vary.

II. The change of shape
Slow-changing things used to constrain fast-changing things and make change predictable. Physics used to constrains biology, biology used to constrain psychology, and psychology used to constrain technology. This has been the story of yesterday. But technology, with all of it’s awesomeness is beginning to ruin this simplicity. It is dissolving constraints across the higherarchy.
Brain computer interfaces will allow us to directly alter psychology, Gene editing will allow us to edit human biology, and greater control over physics will allow us to produce ungodly amounts of energy.
Technology will accelerate change, but predicting the future based on the constants, will still hold.
So long as human imagination stays boundless, there will likely continue to be constraints like finite time, space, energy, computation, uncertainty and so on.

III. The things that remain
So, i suspect that whilst one cannot always predict how things will change, it is much safer to predict what will stay the same.
If i was to make a speculation about what will still be true in 1000 years time, I would say:

  1. There will be constraints.
  2. There will be trade-offs.
  3. There will be competition.
  4. There will be selection.
  5. There will be uncertainty.

I take strange comfort in thinking this way about the future.
On the surface, it may all one-day become unrecognisable, but underneath it all, constants will resist change.

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